As a former local Councillor, I’m used to regularly delivering leaflets saying “It’s a Two Horse Race” with a cheesy pencil drawing of racehorses and claims that it’s between our party and the main other party. Making out it’s going to be close, even if the end result is a 20-30% difference in the votes. All with the aim of getting your vote out on the day and to stave off complacency.
Well no-one is going to be complacent about the result of the polling on May 7th. It’s looking like a 5 horse race – the usual 3 equines, plus UKIP and the SNP. Only the Tories or Labour can win it. But the other 3 parties will play a major role in who will get past the finishing line and actually into government.
Some relevant pieces to read on how to deal with this year from a campaigning perspective. Tom Baker, the self-styled “Thoughtful Campaigner” who The Right Ethos helped place last year at BOND as their Head of Campaigns and Engagement has written this piece: 7 things you need to know about election campaigning.
Also, worth reading: Three Predictions for Charity Campaigns in 2014 by Claremont Communications: Predications for charity campaigns in 2015.
And worth knowing about Oxfam wrap on the knuckles before Christmas for being – though I hope it won’t rein any campaigns in too much as a result Oxfam criticised by charity commission.
Pollsters are being cagey about the outcome, they remember 1992 too well, when most predicted a Labour majority. Sometimes it’s worth looking at what the bookies think as they can’t afford to be wrong.
The current odds of 25 to 1 on a Labour/SNP/Liberal Democrat coalition looks quite an attractive price to me.
Looking beyond the election, what if the Liberal Democrats got back into government with 6 times the number of seats of UKIP but only around half the votes. A massive campaign for a fairer voting system from the right wing?
2015 – It’s going to be very interesting.